Global E-commerce Sales Projected to Reach $6.8 Trillion by 2028

The recently released report, Global Retail E-commerce Forecast 2024 to 2028, predicts that global e-commerce sales will grow from $4.4 trillion in 2023 to $6.8 trillion by 2028, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9%.

Despite the continuous expansion of e-commerce, the report highlights that by 2028, 76% of global retail sales, approximately $21.9 trillion, will still originate from offline channels. As a result, sellers and brands must continue investing in omnichannel strategies to deliver a seamless shopping experience across both online and offline platforms.

The report further underscores the varying levels of e-commerce maturity across different regions. Developed economies like the United States, the United Kingdom, and South Korea exhibit greater maturity due to higher internet penetration rates. However, emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region, Eastern Europe, and Latin America are rapidly catching up, driven by the proliferation of smartphones and the expansion of e-commerce, presenting new opportunities for businesses and consumers alike.

The Asia-Pacific region is expected to lead the growth in e-commerce. E-commerce sales in China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Australia are projected to increase from $2.2 trillion in 2023 to $3.2 trillion in 2028, with China expected to dominate the market. Both China and South Korea will have e-commerce penetration rates exceeding 40% by 2028, making them the top two countries globally in this regard.

Additionally, in Southeast Asia’s six largest economies—Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore—retail e-commerce sales are anticipated to grow from $93 billion in 2023 to $193 billion by 2028, accounting for 17.4% of total retail sales. Indonesia is the regional leader in e-commerce demand, followed by Malaysia and Singapore. The Philippines and Vietnam are expected to see a CAGR exceeding 20% over the next five years, outpacing other countries in the region.

In the Americas, e-commerce sales in the United States are projected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2028, representing 28% of total U.S. retail sales. Meanwhile, Canada’s e-commerce sales are expected to reach $83 billion by 2028. However, due to lower population density, smaller market size, and slower consumer adoption, Canada lags behind the United States in e-commerce penetration. In Latin America, the six largest markets—Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Chile—are forecasted to grow their e-commerce sales from $109 billion in 2023 to $192 billion by 2028.

In Europe, Western European countries are expected to see e-commerce sales grow from $508 billion in 2023 to $773 billion by 2028, with market penetration increasing from 15% to 20%. The United Kingdom will continue to lead the region, followed by Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.

In contrast, Eastern Europe’s e-commerce demand is only half that of Western Europe. E-commerce sales in the region's five largest countries—Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Hungary—are expected to increase from $72 billion in 2023 to $126 billion by 2028, with Russia and Poland leading the market.

In conclusion, the growth of online shopping, social commerce, live commerce, and direct-to-consumer (DTC) models will drive further expansion of global e-commerce sales over the next five years.

However, the report emphasizes that e-commerce maturity and growth opportunities vary by region. Sellers and brands must deeply understand the key drivers of growth in each market and adjust their strategies accordingly to achieve success.